Geopolitical Risk Assessment

Yes. There is a vital need. It can make or break your project.

If considering a project in a volatile or emerging market, you are going to have to have the full – and often untold – story of what is really happening. After all, any geopolitical ups and downs inside and out could drastically impact your timeline for success.

Here is the deal. Governments, companies, investors and and corporations doing business throughout the world have a need to correctly interpret their best course of action under complex circumstances. The consequences of miscalculation can be catastrophic.

Problems can arise overseas tip-toeing the nuances of brutality. Even in safe-haven countries to which refugees have fled, overlooking the echoes of conflict, war crimes and terrorism can be severe. It is critical to assess past, present and future issues.

Do you want to be sure that you aren’t setting your project just miles from a genocide?

Do you want to know what the deal is with government’s expropriating, confiscating your assets?

What are the local cultural dynamics? Is there a brewing civil unrest? Are their undue regulatory burdens? Do you understand cultural customs, etiquette and the way the deal works in the region?

Is climate change going to make its mark?

What is the human rights record and how can you avoid being caught up in a crisis communications catastrophe?

What the diplomatic do’s and don’ts? Should you be worried about terrorism, populism, black markets or insurgents?

What are the health woes? Has COVID-19 been adequately managed?

In this regard, conventional analysis of the subject often misses the mark. A broader view of affairs on the ground is strategic. Subject matter experts able to explain the nuances of dictators, warlords, operatives, victims and refugees from an on the ground perspective are the most valuable.  Experts who have directly interacted with both powerful and lowly persons of interest, the most valuable of all.

This is not an isolated exercise. Many countries, cultures and political situations risk their agendas because they overlook nuances. Business and government leaders at the highest levels need solid perspective from subject matter experts to see with clarity when their staffs cannot. For some things, third person collected data will not suffice. And dogma-based policy based on insular assumptions portends disastrous outcome.

In a nutshell, every investor, developer, player and leader needs to take risk into paramount consideration when amassing that portfolio. Understanding geopolitical risk – deeper than what you can read or see on the surface – will help you assess that risk. Our world class perspective advisors require the capability to generate tangible solutions is a major asset for policy, research and consulting organizations based on firsthand interaction with principal actors.

Few people on this planet have achieved this level of access.